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Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
L. Alvheim 90'
E. Amundsen-Day 77'
A. Ekeroth 72'
L. Mares 64' (pen)
10/26/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Kristiansund BK42%
×Draw25%
Ham-Kam33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund BK
1.54
Ham-Kam
1.34

Kristiansund BK creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kristiansund BK
1.29
Ham-Kam
1.03

allows per match

Kristiansund BK
1.65
Ham-Kam
1.78

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par
Ham-Kam-0.18scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw
67%
Kristiansund BK or Ham-Kam
75%
Draw or Ham-Kam
58%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
21%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
79%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
45%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
20%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
74%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
39%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
56%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.29 + Ham-Kam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ham-Kam attack 1.03 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more
42%
level
25%
Ham-Kam scores more
33%

Kristiansund BK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. EkerothHam-KamHam-Kam · D
8.2

Match Events

29'
Syver Skeide
39'
Gustav Granath
62'
M. Mawa← J. Gonstad
64'
L. MaresPenalty
71'
H. Sletsjoe← R. Corlu
71'
L. Alvheim← D. Tufekcic
71'
A. Ndour← M. Isah
72'
A. Ekeroth↳ Y. Ibrahimaj
77'
E. Amundsen-Day↳ V. Jonsson
81'
Henry Sletsjoe
84'
F. Flex← S. Kilen
84'
A. Ronning← S. Skeide
84'
G. Simenstad← A. Potur
87'
T. Soras← F. Sjolstad
87'
E. Gojani← K. Lien
90'
L. Alvheim↳ I. Hoffmann

Possession

55%Kristiansund

Shots

17Kristiansund

Pass accuracy

51%Kristiansund

Statistics

KristiansundHam-Kam
Overview
55%Possession45%
17Total Shots16
1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.38
5Corners7
11Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots16
5On Target6
7Off Target6
5Blocked4
14Inside Box10
3Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
447Total Passes352
376Accurate Passes281
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 1–3 Ham-Kam

Ham-Kam beat Kristiansund BK 3-1 in Eliteserien on October 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Mares (64' pen), A. Ekeroth (72'), E. Amundsen-Day (77'), L. Alvheim (90').

Kristiansund BK controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Kristiansund Stadion in Kristiansund.