Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
H. Udahl 90+6' (pen)
10/27/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Ham-Kam45%
×Draw24%
Kristiansund BK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.62
Kristiansund BK
1.31

Ham-Kam creates 24% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.27
Kristiansund BK
0.98

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.65
Kristiansund BK
1.97

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.42scores more
Kristiansund BK-0.02on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
69%
Ham-Kam or Kristiansund BK
76%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
55%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
23%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
80%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
48%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
22%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
73%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
38%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
59%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 29 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.97 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.27 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kristiansund BK attack 0.98 + Ham-Kam defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
45%
level
24%
Kristiansund BK scores more
31%

Ham-Kam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
L. MaresHam-KamHam-Kam · D
7.7

Match Events

21'
Mohamed Ofkir
46'
H. Udahl← M. Ofkir
66'
Jesper Isaksen
73'
M. Johnsgård← K. Onsrud
79'
H. Mikaelsson← K. Lien
79'
W. Igor← J. Isaksen
80'
P. Kirkevold← M. Mawa
86'
Tore Andre Soras
89'
J. Norheim← F. Sjølstad
89'
W. Kurtović← T. Sørås
89'
A. Hopmark← R. Alte
89'
F. Nyenetue← A. Ndour
90+7'
Henrik Udahl
90+5'
Gard SimenstadPenalty confirmed
90+3'
Wilfred Igor
90+6'
H. UdahlPenalty

Possession

49%Ham-Kam

Shots

8Ham-Kam

Pass accuracy

50%Ham-Kam

Statistics

Ham-KamKristiansund
Overview
49%Possession51%
8Total Shots10
1.05Expected Goals (xG)1.22
7Corners4
9Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots10
1On Target3
5Off Target6
2Blocked1
7Inside Box7
1Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
413Total Passes452
323Accurate Passes359
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls7
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK

Ham-Kam beat Kristiansund BK 1-0 in Eliteserien on October 27, 2024.

Goals: H. Udahl (90+6' pen).

Kristiansund BK controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.