Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
K. Lien 59'
V. Jonsson 3'
D. Tufekcic 2'
3/30/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 1Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Ham-Kam45%
×Draw24%
Kristiansund BK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.63
Kristiansund BK
1.30

Ham-Kam creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.29
Kristiansund BK
0.98

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.62
Kristiansund BK
1.97

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.41scores more
Kristiansund BK-0.02on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
69%
Ham-Kam or Kristiansund BK
76%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
55%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
23%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
80%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
48%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
22%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
73%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
37%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
60%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.97 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.29 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kristiansund BK attack 0.98 + Ham-Kam defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
45%
level
24%
Kristiansund BK scores more
31%

Ham-Kam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
B. BjarnasonHam-KamHam-Kam · D
8.0

Match Events

2'
D. Tufekcic↳ R. Corlu
3'
V. Jonsson↳ J. Gonstad
11'
Gard Simenstad
46'
Ian Hoffmann
59'
K. Lien↳ B. Bjarnason
69'
Kristian Stromland Lien
71'
S. Kilen← A. Ndour
80'
M. Larsen← F. Sjolstad
80'
A. Roaldsoy← M. Johnsgard
82'
L. Alvheim← R. Corlu
84'
A. Potur← J. Gonstad
90+5'
Anton Ekeroth
90+4'
A. Ekeroth← S. Nilsen
90+3'
P. Kirkevold← G. Simenstad
90+1'
A. Guessand← R. Alte

Possession

38%Ham-Kam

Shots

11Ham-Kam

Pass accuracy

46%Ham-Kam

Statistics

Ham-KamKristiansund
Overview
38%Possession62%
11Total Shots14
2.04Expected Goals (xG)0.82
1Corners6
16Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots14
5On Target5
4Off Target7
2Blocked2
8Inside Box13
3Outside Box1
Passing
38%Possession62%
333Total Passes545
244Accurate Passes465
73%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK

Ham-Kam beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 in Eliteserien on March 30, 2025.

Goals: D. Tufekcic (2'), V. Jonsson (3'), K. Lien (59').

Kristiansund BK controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.