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KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
H. Hoseth 64'
S. Hestnes 48'
G. Simenstad 88'
A. Roaldsoy 14'
8/22/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 19KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

KFUM Oslo50%
×Draw25%
Ham-Kam25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Oslo
1.60
Ham-Kam
1.04

KFUM Oslo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

KFUM Oslo
1.44
Ham-Kam
1.06

allows per match

KFUM Oslo
1.01
Ham-Kam
1.76

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.21scores less
Ham-Kam-0.18scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw
75%
KFUM Oslo or Ham-Kam
75%
Draw or Ham-Kam
50%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
26%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
80%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
47%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
22%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
65%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
28%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
67%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.44 + Ham-Kam defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ham-Kam attack 1.06 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more
50%
level
25%
Ham-Kam scores more
25%

KFUM Oslo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
H. HosethKFUM OsloKFUM Oslo
7.7

Match Events

14'
A. Roaldsoy↳ A. Potur
48'
S. Hestnes↳ S. Sandal
61'
G. Simenstad← T. Soras
64'
H. Hoseth↳ A. Aleesami
68'
Alwande Roaldsoy
68'
B. Njie← D. Hickson
68'
T. Haltvik← M. Ndiaye
80'
B. Kristensen← M. Njie
80'
A. Nouri← H. Hoseth
80'
E. Amundsen-Day← F. Sjolstad
80'
H. Udahl← K. Lien
82'
M. Pedersen← V. Jonsson
87'
Bjorn Martin Kristensen
88'
G. Simenstad
89'
Ethan Amundsen-Day

Possession

59%KFUM

Shots

12KFUM

Pass accuracy

51%KFUM

Statistics

KFUMHam-Kam
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots5
1.01Expected Goals (xG)0.46
2Corners1
8Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots5
4On Target4
6Off Target1
2Blocked0
7Inside Box3
5Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
578Total Passes412
499Accurate Passes339
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Eliteserien: KFUM Oslo 2–2 Ham-Kam

KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on August 22, 2025.

Goals: A. Roaldsoy (14'), S. Hestnes (48'), H. Hoseth (64'), G. Simenstad (88').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.