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Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
5/2/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 5Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Ham-Kam33%
×Draw26%
KFUM Oslo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.21
KFUM Oslo
1.38

KFUM Oslo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.32
KFUM Oslo
1.13

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.62
KFUM Oslo
1.10

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.49scores more
KFUM Oslo+0.24scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
59%
Ham-Kam or KFUM Oslo
74%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
67%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
14%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
70%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
34%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
12%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
75%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
40%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
45%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.32 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

KFUM Oslo attack 1.13 + Ham-Kam defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
33%
level
26%
KFUM Oslo scores more
41%

KFUM Oslo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. RaschKFUM OsloKFUM Oslo · M
8.3

Match Events

36'
B. Kristensen← D. Hickson
42'
Pål Alexander Kirkevold
63'
W. Osnes-Ringen← A. Odegard
63'
K. Lien← P. Kirkevold
63'
N. Semmen← M. Njie
75'
Niclas Semmen
78'
J. Hjorth← F. Berglie
82'
Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason
82'
Teodor Haltvik
85'
V. Jonsson← S. Nilsen
85'
A. Roaldsoy← A. Potur
87'
J. Gonstad← M. Mawa

Possession

35%Ham-Kam

Shots

11Ham-Kam

Pass accuracy

46%Ham-Kam

Statistics

Ham-KamKFUM
Overview
35%Possession65%
11Total Shots13
0.56Expected Goals (xG)1.06
0Corners7
10Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target2
5Off Target6
2Blocked5
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box7
Passing
35%Possession65%
329Total Passes609
244Accurate Passes534
74%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo

Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on May 2, 2025.

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.