Ham-Kam 0–2 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Ham-Kam

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

KFUM Oslo

H. Hoseth 48'

S. Hestnes 24'

12/1/2024

Eliteserien · Round 30Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Ham-Kam33%

×Draw27%

KFUM Oslo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.36

Ham-Kam

1.21

KFUM Oslo

1.36

KFUM Oslo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.32

creates per match

1.10

1.62

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.32

KFUM Oslo

1.10

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.62

KFUM Oslo

1.09

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.49scores more

KFUM Oslo+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

60%

Ham-Kam or KFUM Oslo

73%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

67%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

14%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

70%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

34%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

12%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

74%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

39%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

45%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.09 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.32 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

KFUM Oslo attack 1.10 + Ham-Kam defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

33%

level

27%

KFUM Oslo scores more

40%

KFUM Oslo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Nuñez

KFUM Oslo · F

8.0

Match Events

16'

Fredrik Sjolstad

23'

Tore Andre Soras

24'

S. Hestnes

48'

H. Hoseth↳ H. Aleesami

55'

Luc Mares

61'

M. Johnsgård← K. Onsrud

61'

P. Kirkevold← H. Udahl

61'

J. Norheim← V. Jónsson

72'

M. Ndiaye← Moussa Njie

72'

M. Tønnessen← D. Hickson

72'

A. Nouri← H. Hoseth

76'

Pål Alexander Kirkevold

77'

A. Ødegård← M. Ofkir

84'

O. Dobloug← F. Sjølstad

84'

T. Haltvik← O. Okeke

88'

J. Hjorth← S. Akinyemi

90'

Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamKFUM

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots19

4Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots19

2On Target10

4Off Target5

6Blocked4

5Inside Box10

7Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

514Total Passes412

435Accurate Passes348

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1