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Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
M. Niang 81', 50'
H. Udahl 41' (pen), 24' (pen)
4/19/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 5Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Ham-Kam33%
×Draw27%
KFUM Oslo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.20
KFUM Oslo
1.36

KFUM Oslo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.32
KFUM Oslo
1.10

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.62
KFUM Oslo
1.08

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.49scores more
KFUM Oslo+0.20scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
60%
Ham-Kam or KFUM Oslo
73%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
67%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
14%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
70%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
34%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
12%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
74%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
39%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
45%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.32 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

KFUM Oslo attack 1.10 + Ham-Kam defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
33%
level
27%
KFUM Oslo scores more
40%

KFUM Oslo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
M. NiangHam-KamHam-Kam · F
9.5

Match Events

13'
Aksel Baran Potur
24'
H. UdahlPenalty
39'
Sander Hansen Sjøkvist
41'
H. UdahlPenalty
45+1'
H. Hoseth← R. Rasch
46'
H. Opsahl← F. Sjolstad
46'
W. Osnes-Ringen← A. Potur
50'
M. Niang↳ V. Jonsson
60'
A. Trondsen← P. Metcalfe
60'
A. Nouri← J. Hjorth
60'
M. Grodem← M. Eikrem
60'
B. Kristensen← R. E. Vinge
73'
I. Hoffmann← V. Jonsson
81'
M. Niang↳ L. Mettler
82'
J. Gonstad← M. Niang
82'
M. Njie← F. Berglie

Possession

52%Ham-Kam

Shots

13Ham-Kam

Pass accuracy

51%Ham-Kam

Statistics

Ham-KamKFUM
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots12
2.62Expected Goals (xG)0.77
0Corners3
15Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots12
6On Target2
6Off Target4
1Blocked6
12Inside Box7
1Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
544Total Passes491
473Accurate Passes419
87%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-1.82Goals Prevented-1.82
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Ham-Kam 4–0 KFUM Oslo

Ham-Kam beat KFUM Oslo 4-0 in Eliteserien on April 19, 2026.

Goals: H. Udahl (24' pen, 41' pen), M. Niang (50', 81').

Ham-Kam controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.