KFUM Oslo 1–1 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ham-Kam

P. Dahl 89'

M. Mawa 12'

4/2/2024

Eliteserien · Round 1Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

KFUM Oslo51%

×Draw25%

Ham-Kam24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.02

KFUM Oslo

1.61

Ham-Kam

1.02

KFUM Oslo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

1.44

creates per match

1.03

1.01

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.44

Ham-Kam

1.03

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.01

Ham-Kam

1.78

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.21scores less

Ham-Kam-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

76%

KFUM Oslo or Ham-Kam

75%

Draw or Ham-Kam

49%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

27%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

80%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

48%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

22%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

64%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

27%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

68%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.44 + Ham-Kam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ham-Kam attack 1.03 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

51%

level

25%

Ham-Kam scores more

24%

KFUM Oslo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Sandberg

Ham-Kam · G

8.9

Match Events

-5'

12'

29'

64'

64'

68'

68'

B. Bjarnason← V. Jónsson

77'

O. Kjærgaard← M. Mawa

86'

William Kurtović

86'

Niklas Odegard

86'

J. Nuñez← R. Svindland

86'

K. Harrison← Momodou Njie

89'

P. Dahl

90+6'

Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason

90+1'

H. Udahl← K. Onsrud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMHam-Kam

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots9

2.34Expected Goals (xG)1.17

6Corners3

11Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots9

9On Target2

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

14Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

550Total Passes274

464Accurate Passes177

84%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1