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KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
Preview
16:00
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
12/6/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29KFUM Arena
Big match
47%
KFUM Oslo
model favours
47%26%27%

KFUM Oslo score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

KFUM Oslo47%
×Draw26%
Fredrikstad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Oslo
1.53
Fredrikstad
1.09

KFUM Oslo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

creates per match

KFUM Oslo
1.40
Fredrikstad
1.11

allows per match

KFUM Oslo
1.07
Fredrikstad
1.66

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.16scores less
Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw
73%
KFUM Oslo or Fredrikstad
74%
Draw or Fredrikstad
53%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
24%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
78%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
45%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
20%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
66%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
30%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
64%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.40 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more
47%
level
26%
Fredrikstad scores more
27%

KFUM Oslo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches
  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
KFUM Oslo
Defensively solid
Fredrikstad
Balanced
49%Possession45%
79%Pass accuracy75%
10.1ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.25xG1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
KFUM OsloFredrikstad

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
KFUM Oslo
2
Draws
4
Fredrikstad
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 70%
1–31–12–10–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oslo
LLLLD
Fredrikstad
LLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad — Match Preview

KFUM Oslo face Fredrikstad on December 6, 2026 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KFUM Oslo host Fredrikstad at KFUM Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.