KFUM Oslo 2–1 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fredrikstad

B. Njie 41'

D. Hickson 27'

S. Sorlokk 90'

10/1/2025

Eliteserien · Round 23KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

KFUM Oslo48%

×Draw26%

Fredrikstad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

KFUM Oslo

1.52

Fredrikstad

1.07

KFUM Oslo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

1.44

creates per match

1.13

1.01

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.44

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.01

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.21scores less

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

73%

KFUM Oslo or Fredrikstad

74%

Draw or Fredrikstad

52%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

24%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

78%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

45%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

20%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

66%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

29%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

64%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.44 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

48%

level

26%

Fredrikstad scores more

27%

KFUM Oslo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

H. Hoseth

KFUM Oslo

7.7

Match Events

27'

D. Hickson↳ H. Hoseth

41'

B. Njie↳ J. Hjorth

56'

Fredrik Tobias Berglie

59'

S. Laghzaoui← O. Ohlenschlaeger

59'

J. Nunez← D. Eid

63'

M. Ndiaye← H. Udahl

68'

S. Sorlokk← P. Metcalfe

68'

M. Woledzi← S. Molde

69'

L. Begby← H. Skogvold

74'

D. Schneider← M. Njie

74'

T. Haltvik← B. Njie

82'

Rocco Robert Shein

90'

Mathias Tonnessen

90+1'

B. Skaret← A. Aleesami

90+2'

A. Nouri← H. Hoseth

90'

S. Sorlokk↳ R. R. Shein

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMFredrikstad

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots7

0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.23

2Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots7

3On Target4

4Off Target1

2Blocked2

8Inside Box3

1Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

412Total Passes562

329Accurate Passes453

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad

KFUM Oslo beat Fredrikstad 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 1, 2025.

Goals: D. Hickson (27'), B. Njie (41'), S. Sorlokk (90').

Fredrikstad controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad