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Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
8/4/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 17Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Fredrikstad40%
×Draw26%
KFUM Oslo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.35
KFUM Oslo
1.23

Fredrikstad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.13

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.34
KFUM Oslo
1.10

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.19scores less
KFUM Oslo+0.24scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
66%
Fredrikstad or KFUM Oslo
74%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
60%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
18%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
74%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
39%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
15%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
71%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
35%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
54%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 33 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.61 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

KFUM Oslo attack 1.13 + Fredrikstad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
40%
level
26%
KFUM Oslo scores more
34%

Fredrikstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. MagnússonFredrikstadFredrikstad · M
7.9

Match Events

46'
A. Nouri← H. Hoseth
61'
J. Kjær← P. Metcalfe
68'
O. Okeke← Moussa Njie
68'
S. Sandal← M. Ndiaye
69'
Robin Rasch
75'
H. Johansen← S. Sørløkk
76'
J. Bjartalíð← M. Traoré
78'
R. Svindland← T. Haltvik
83'
F. Fall← S. Kvile
87'
N. Semmen← R. Rasch

Possession

49%Fredrikstad

Shots

10Fredrikstad

Pass accuracy

50%Fredrikstad

Statistics

FredrikstadKFUM
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots3
0.68Expected Goals (xG)0.04
4Corners1
9Fouls6
Shots
10Total Shots3
1On Target0
6Off Target3
3Blocked0
6Inside Box3
4Outside Box0
Passing
49%Possession51%
456Total Passes489
345Accurate Passes367
76%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 0–0 KFUM Oslo

Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on August 4, 2024.

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (51%) and registered 3 shots to 10.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.