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Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
S. Sorlokk 5'
5/16/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 7Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Fredrikstad40%
×Draw26%
KFUM Oslo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.35
KFUM Oslo
1.23

Fredrikstad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.13

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.34
KFUM Oslo
1.10

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.19scores less
KFUM Oslo+0.24scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
66%
Fredrikstad or KFUM Oslo
74%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
60%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
18%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
74%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
39%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
15%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
71%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
35%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
54%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 33 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.61 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

KFUM Oslo attack 1.13 + Fredrikstad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
40%
level
26%
KFUM Oslo scores more
34%

Fredrikstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
M. TonnessenKFUM OsloKFUM Oslo · D
8.0

Match Events

5'
S. Sorlokk↳ E. Holten
34'
Sverre Hakami Sandal
46'
D. Schneider← M. Njie
46'
O. Okeke← R. Rasch
53'
Fallou Fall
53'
Obilor Denzel Okeke
60'
R. R. Shein← E. Holten
70'
H. Skogvold← S. Sorlokk
70'
A. Nouri← H. Hoseth
71'
S. Rafn← D. Eid
79'
B. Skaret← F. Fall
79'
L. Begby← S. Molde
82'
M. Ndiaye← B. Kristensen
87'
N. Semmen← A. Aleesami

Possession

38%Fredrikstad

Shots

6Fredrikstad

Pass accuracy

48%Fredrikstad

Statistics

FredrikstadKFUM
Overview
38%Possession62%
6Total Shots8
0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.68
4Corners6
10Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots8
1On Target2
4Off Target4
1Blocked2
5Inside Box6
1Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
357Total Passes556
283Accurate Passes480
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 1–0 KFUM Oslo

Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 1-0 in Eliteserien on May 16, 2025.

Goals: S. Sorlokk (5').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.