Fredrikstad 3–1 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

KFUM Oslo

J. Nunez 31'

R. R. Shein 19'

S. Hestnes 10' (OG)

T. Haltvik 23'

3/22/2026

Eliteserien · Round 2Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Fredrikstad40%

×Draw27%

KFUM Oslo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.22

Fredrikstad

1.35

KFUM Oslo

1.22

Fredrikstad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 21 away

1.60

creates per match

1.10

1.33

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

KFUM Oslo

1.10

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

KFUM Oslo

1.09

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

KFUM Oslo+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

66%

Fredrikstad or KFUM Oslo

73%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

60%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

18%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

74%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

39%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

15%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

70%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

34%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

54%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.09 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

KFUM Oslo attack 1.10 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

40%

level

27%

KFUM Oslo scores more

34%

Fredrikstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

M. Borsheim

Fredrikstad · G

8.7

Match Events

10'

S. HestnesOwn goal

19'

R. R. Shein

23'

T. Haltvik↳ M. Vinjor

31'

J. Nunez↳ L. Owusu

39'

Eirik Franke Saunes

46'

S. Laghzaoui← J. Nunez

46'

M. Grodem← B. Kristensen

46'

H. Hoseth← J. Hjorth

60'

R. Rasch← T. Soras

60'

R. E. Vinge← M. Vinjor

65'

Teodor HaltvikGoal cancelled

66'

S. Rafn← S. Owusu

75'

A. Nouri← S. Sjokvist

82'

S. Leach← L. Owusu

90+8'

Hakon Helland Hoseth

90+3'

F. Ghebreyohannes← D. Eid

90+3'

K. Okpaleke← O. Ohlenschlaeger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadKFUM

Overview

35%Possession65%

14Total Shots13

1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.05

5Corners5

7Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots13

7On Target8

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

295Total Passes571

186Accurate Passes460

63%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

-1.79Goals Prevented-1.79

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0

Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 3–1 KFUM Oslo

Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 3-1 in Eliteserien on March 22, 2026.

Goals: S. Hestnes (10' o.g.), R. R. Shein (19'), T. Haltvik (23'), J. Nunez (31').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.

Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 3–1 KFUM Oslo