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KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
R. Svindland 60' (pen)
J. Kjær 45', 33'
M. Bjørlo 7', 3'
5/12/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 7KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

KFUM Oslo47%
×Draw26%
Fredrikstad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Oslo
1.53
Fredrikstad
1.09

KFUM Oslo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

creates per match

KFUM Oslo
1.40
Fredrikstad
1.11

allows per match

KFUM Oslo
1.07
Fredrikstad
1.66

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.16scores less
Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw
73%
KFUM Oslo or Fredrikstad
74%
Draw or Fredrikstad
53%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
24%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
78%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
45%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
20%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
66%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
30%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
64%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.40 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more
47%
level
26%
Fredrikstad scores more
27%

KFUM Oslo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. KjærFredrikstadFredrikstad · F
8.3

Match Events

3'
M. Bjørlo
7'
M. Bjørlo
16'
Sondre SørløkkPenalty cancelled
33'
J. Kjær
45'
J. Kjær↳ S. Molde
46'
D. Hickson← H. Hoseth
46'
A. Hadzic← K. Harrison
46'
A. Aleesami← S. Akinyemi
46'
Moussa Njie← S. Sandal
60'
R. SvindlandPenalty
61'
Haitam Aleesami
65'
B. Hendriksson← J. Kjær
66'
O. Aga← M. Bjørlo
73'
E. Segberg← S. Sørløkk
73'
M. Nielsen← B. Skaret
81'
A. Saldaña← R. Svindland

Possession

61%KFUM

Shots

8KFUM

Pass accuracy

54%KFUM

Statistics

KFUMFredrikstad
Overview
61%Possession39%
8Total Shots9
1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.47
6Corners3
6Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots9
3On Target5
4Off Target3
1Blocked1
3Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
510Total Passes328
376Accurate Passes211
74%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

Eliteserien: KFUM Oslo 1–4 Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 4-1 in Eliteserien on May 12, 2024.

Goals: M. Bjørlo (3', 7'), J. Kjær (33', 45'), R. Svindland (60' pen).

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.