KFUM Oslo 2–1 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fredrikstad

R. Svindland 59'

S. Hestnes 41'

R. Alba 17'

8/13/2023

1. Division · Round 18KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

KFUM Oslo45%

×Draw24%

Fredrikstad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.31

KFUM Oslo

1.62

Fredrikstad

1.31

KFUM Oslo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 46 away

1.81

creates per match

1.54

1.08

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.81

Fredrikstad

1.54

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.08

Fredrikstad

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

69%

KFUM Oslo or Fredrikstad

76%

Draw or Fredrikstad

55%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

23%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

80%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

48%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

22%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

73%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

38%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

59%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.81 + Fredrikstad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Fredrikstad attack 1.54 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

45%

level

24%

Fredrikstad scores more

31%

KFUM Oslo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

33'

41'

48'

59'

62'

62'

O. Aga← R. Alba

63'

S. Sandal← R. Svindland

63'

J. El Abdellaoui← O. Okeke

63'

B. Hendriksson← P. Metcalfe

69'

K. Harrison← A. Akinyemi

75'

P. Aukland← B. Skaret

75'

H. Johansen← S. Molde

88'

Moussa Njie← J. Hummelvoll-Nuñez

88'

H. Hoseth← J. Hjorth

KFUM

Fredrikstad

1

Jensen

4

▼

Molde

26

Nielsen

18

Begby

3

▼

22

20

14

12

▼

Metcalfe

11

⚽

▼

Alba

13

▼

Sørløkk

1

Ødegaard

5

▼

3

4

15

16

▼

Hjorth

6

⚽

▼

Svindland

7

Rasch

8

⚽

Hestnes

9

▼

Hummelvol

18

▼

Okeke

Manager: J. Moesgaard

63'▲S. Sandal←▼R. Svindland

63'▲J. El Abdellaoui←▼O. Okeke

69'▲K. Harrison←▼A. Akinyemi

88'▲Moussa Njie←▼J. Hummelvoll-Nuñez

88'▲H. Hoseth←▼J. Hjorth

KFUM Oslo substitutes

25Sandal28Abdellaoui29Harrison11Njie14Hoseth2Ghaedamini12Vedeler17Haltvik21Halvorsen

Manager: M. Thomassen

62'▲A. Konte←▼S. Sørløkk

62'▲O. Aga←▼R. Alba

63'▲B. Hendriksson←▼P. Metcalfe

75'▲P. Aukland←▼B. Skaret

75'▲H. Johansen←▼S. Molde

Fredrikstad substitutes

16Konte29Aga7Hendriksson6Aukland9Johansen2Björkström23Maden25Langbråten28Hermansen

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad

KFUM Oslo beat Fredrikstad 2-1 in 1. Division on August 13, 2023.

Goals: R. Alba (17'), S. Hestnes (41'), R. Svindland (59').

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad