Huracan 0–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Huracan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

10/29/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Huracan49%

×Draw29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.73

Huracan

1.26

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.73

Huracan creates 73% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.08

creates per match

0.83

0.64

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Huracan

1.08

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.83

allows per match

Huracan

0.64

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.44

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Huracan-0.27scores less

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

78%

Huracan or Central Cordoba de Santiago

71%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

51%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

23%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

72%

Huracan 2+ goals

36%

Huracan 3+ goals

13%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

52%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

17%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

69%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.64 · 21 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.44 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.08 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.83 + Huracan defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Huracan scores more

49%

level

29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

22%

Huracan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. Abascia

Central Cordoba de Santiago · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

Ramón ÁbilaPenalty cancelled

24'

Lucas Carrizo

32'

Rafael Barrios

46'

W. Mazzantti← C. Ibáñez

46'

A. Soñora← F. Watson

46'

M. Benítez← M. Godoy

46'

I. Pillud← R. Barrios

48'

G. Benítez← L. Carrizo

51'

Ramón Ábila

59'

Guillermo Benitez

60'

Walter Mazzantti

72'

E. Cabrera← R. Atencio

72'

F. Cabral← L. Varaldo

73'

R. Cabral← E. Ramírez

75'

Yonatthan Rak

86'

H. De La Fuente← L. Souto

90+6'

Juan Meli

90+1'

A. Segovia← K. Vázquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanCentral

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots15

1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.64

6Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots15

4On Target3

5Off Target6

5Blocked6

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

316Total Passes472

228Accurate Passes403

72%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.77Goals Prevented0.77

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1