Huracan 1–2 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Huracan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Central Cordoba de Santiago

H. De La Fuente 7'

J. Florentín 37'

R. Atencio 18'

10/25/2024

Copa Argentina · Semi-finalsEstadio Único de San Nicolás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Huracan28%

×Draw27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.35

Huracan

1.02

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.35

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

1.60

1.11

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Huracan

1.44

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.60

allows per match

Huracan

1.11

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

56%

Huracan or Central Cordoba de Santiago

73%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

72%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

11%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

64%

Huracan 2+ goals

27%

Huracan 3+ goals

8%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

74%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

39%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

39%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.44 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.02

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.60 + Huracan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huracan scores more

28%

level

27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

44%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

H. De La Fuente

18'

R. Atencio↳ M. Godoy

30'

A. G. Benitez

33'

J. I. Florentin Bobadilla

37'

J. Florentín↳ R. Atencio

46'

R. Ábila← H. Fértoli

66'

P. Siles← G. Benítez

66'

R. Cabral← H. De La Fuente

69'

L. Carrizo

72'

F. Cabral← L. Varaldo

74'

R. Abila

75'

L. Abascia

79'

F. Alfonso← F. Fattori

82'

M. Palavecino← R. Atencio

82'

S. Laquidaín← L. Abascia

85'

M. A. Palavecino

85'

F. Watson← A. Soñora

86'

F. Kudelka

88'

C. Vega← K. Vázquez

88'

N. Quagliata← M. Godoy

90+2'

R. Echeverria

Huracan

Central

1

13

15

6

2

▼

Abascia

26

Meli

25

⚽

Florentín

32

▼

Vázquez

11

A

▼

Godoy

9

▼

Varaldo

8

⚽A

▼

1

6

20

13

▼

Benítez

3

Carrizo

29

⚽

▼

Fuente

24

▼

Fattori

28

▼

Soñora

8

▼

Fértoli

43

Ramírez

10

Mazzantti

Manager: F. Kudelka

46'▲R. Ábila←▼H. Fértoli

66'▲P. Siles←▼G. Benítez

66'▲R. Cabral←▼H. De La Fuente

79'▲F. Alfonso←▼F. Fattori

85'▲F. Watson←▼A. Soñora

Huracan substitutes

9Ábila22Siles16Cabral11Alfonso21Watson25Ibáñez17Ramírez4Souto26Toledo33Burdisso32Meza2Tobio

Manager: O. De Felippe

72'▲F. Cabral←▼L. Varaldo

82'▲M. Palavecino←▼R. Atencio

82'▲S. Laquidaín←▼L. Abascia

88'▲C. Vega←▼K. Vázquez

88'▲N. Quagliata←▼M. Godoy

Central Cordoba de Santiago substitutes

29Cabral38Palavecino24Laquidaín5Vega27Quagliata23Bursich3Marchi10Cabrera16Andueza4Pillud21Segovia7Benítez