Hull City 1–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackpool

Ó. Estupiñán 77'

S. Carey 28'

12/26/2022

Championship · Round 24The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hull City43%

×Draw27%

Blackpool30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.09

Hull City

1.38

Blackpool

1.09

Hull City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 52 away

1.24

creates per match

0.92

1.27

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Hull City

1.24

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Hull City

1.27

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

70%

Hull City or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

57%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

21%

Blackpool wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

75%

Hull City 2+ goals

40%

Hull City 3+ goals

16%

Blackpool 1+ goals

66%

Blackpool 2+ goals

30%

Blackpool 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

59%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more

43%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

30%

Hull City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

S. Carey

Blackpool · M

7.6

Match Events

21'

Luke Garbutt

28'

S. Carey↳ G. Madine

46'

J. Thorniley← L. Garbutt

47'

Jean Michaël Seri

53'

Jordan Thorniley

56'

D. Thompson← I. Poveda-Ocampo

60'

A. Sayyadmanesh← R. Woods

60'

D. Sinik← R. Longman

61'

L. Coyle← C. Christie

74'

T. Smith← A. Jones

77'

Ó. Estupiñán↳ L. Coyle

83'

S. Lavery← J. Beesley

86'

Jacob Greaves

90+3'

Daniel Grimshaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullBlackpool

Overview

67%Possession33%

15Total Shots16

11Corners8

18Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots16

1On Target6

10Off Target6

4Blocked4

8Inside Box11

7Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

510Total Passes245

405Accurate Passes145

79%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2