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Hull City vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
T. Eaves 84'
S. Lavery 42'
9/28/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hull City43%
×Draw27%
Blackpool30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.38
Blackpool
1.09

Hull City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.24
Blackpool
0.92

allows per match

Hull City
1.27
Blackpool
1.52

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
70%
Hull City or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
57%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
21%
Blackpool wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
40%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Blackpool 1+ goals
66%
Blackpool 2+ goals
30%
Blackpool 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
59%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more
43%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
30%

Hull City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
G. DochertyHull CityHull City · M
7.5

Match Events

38'
Mallik Wilks
42'
S. Lavery↳ D. Mitchell
45+2'
Lewie Coyle
58'
T. Smith← R. Longman
62'
J. Bowler← D. Mitchell
68'
Luke Garbutt
71'
J. Yates← G. Madine
77'
T. Eaves← A. Cannon
80'
Lewie Coyle
80'
Lewie Coyle
82'
Shayne Lavery
84'
T. Eaves↳ K. Lewis-Potter
85'
D. Bernard← G. Moncur
85'
T. John-Jules← S. Lavery

Possession

62%Hull

Shots

15Hull

Pass accuracy

53%Hull

Statistics

HullBlackpool
Overview
62%Possession38%
15Total Shots10
9Corners3
8Fouls14
Shots
15Total Shots10
3On Target3
5Off Target3
7Blocked4
8Inside Box7
7Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
533Total Passes326
444Accurate Passes242
83%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Championship: Hull City 1–1 Blackpool

Hull City and Blackpool drew 1-1 in Championship on September 28, 2021.

Goals: S. Lavery (42'), T. Eaves (84').

Hull City controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.