Blackpool 1–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hull City

G. Madine 31' (pen)

1/1/2022

Championship · Round 26Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool40%

×Draw26%

Hull City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.23

Blackpool

1.37

Hull City

1.23

Blackpool creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 156 away

1.23

creates per match

1.19

1.27

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Hull City

1.19

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Hull City

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

66%

Blackpool or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

19%

Hull City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

75%

Blackpool 2+ goals

40%

Blackpool 3+ goals

16%

Hull City 1+ goals

71%

Hull City 2+ goals

35%

Hull City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

54%

Hull City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.51 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hull City attack 1.19 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more

40%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

34%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

D. Grimshaw

Blackpool · G

8.5

Match Events

16'

T. Smith← C. Elder

31'

G. MadinePenalty

62'

T. Eaves← J. Magennis

67'

Di'Shon Bernard

71'

R. Williams← R. Smallwood

73'

J. Yates← S. Lavery

76'

George Honeyman

89'

C. Connolly← J. Bowler

90'

D. Grétarsson← K. Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolHull

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots14

1Corners2

7Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target6

3Off Target5

2Blocked3

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

355Total Passes389

231Accurate Passes245

65%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2