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Blackpool vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hull City
Hull City
K. Dougall 31'
R. Slater 79'
G. Docherty 45+3'
R. Longman 26'
10/19/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool40%
×Draw26%
Hull City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.37
Hull City
1.23

Blackpool creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 156 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.23
Hull City
1.19

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
Hull City
1.51

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
66%
Blackpool or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
60%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
19%
Hull City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
75%
Blackpool 2+ goals
40%
Blackpool 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
71%
Hull City 2+ goals
35%
Hull City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
54%
Hull City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.51 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hull City attack 1.19 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more
40%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
34%

Blackpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
D. PelkasHull CityHull City · M
7.5

Match Events

26'
R. Longman
31'
K. Dougall↳ T. Corbeanu
38'
Ryan Longman
43'
Regan Slater
45+2'
Callum Wright
45+3'
G. Docherty↳ R. Woods
48'
Gary Madine
51'
Jacob Greaves
57'
L. Bridcutt← C. Wright
63'
J. Husband← L. Garbutt
64'
C. Hamilton← G. Madine
71'
Ó. Estupiñán← R. Longman
72'
D. Sinik← J. Seri
78'
Dimitrios Pelkas
79'
R. Slater
80'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← R. Williams
81'
Callum Connolly
82'
B. Fleming← D. Pelkas
90+1'
O. Tufan← R. Slater
90+1'
S. McLoughlin← C. Christie

Possession

50%Blackpool

Shots

8Blackpool

Pass accuracy

50%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolHull
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots11
2Corners4
13Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots11
1On Target3
6Off Target6
1Blocked2
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
435Total Passes435
323Accurate Passes324
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Discipline
13Fouls15
3Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Hull City

Hull City beat Blackpool 3-1 in Championship on October 19, 2022.

Goals: R. Longman (26'), K. Dougall (31'), G. Docherty (45+3'), R. Slater (79').

Blackpool controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.