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Hull City vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
M. Wilks 51'
J. Yates 81'
1/16/2021League OneLeague One · Round 24KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City46%
×Draw29%
Blackpool25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.29
Blackpool
0.86

Hull City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 134 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Blackpool
1.20

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
75%
Hull City or Blackpool
71%
Draw or Blackpool
54%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
21%
Blackpool wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
37%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Blackpool 1+ goals
58%
Blackpool 2+ goals
21%
Blackpool 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
65%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hull City scores more
46%
level
29%
Blackpool scores more
25%

Hull City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. ElderHull CityHull City · D
7.5

Match Events

27'
Kenneth Dougall
51'
M. Wilks↳ J. Magennis
58'
M. Virtue-Thick← S. Kaikai
63'
B. Woodburn← B. Lubala
66'
Reece Burke
73'
K. Lewis-Potter← J. Magennis
77'
Reece Burke
79'
A. Jones← G. Whyte
81'
J. Gabriel← O. Turton
81'
J. Yates
82'
E. Robson← K. Dougall
82'
L. Garbutt← J. Husband
90'
Jacob Greaves
90'
Gary Madine

Possession

46%Hull

Shots

9Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullBlackpool
Overview
46%Possession54%
9Total Shots10
2Corners4
11Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target2
4Off Target7
3Blocked1
6Inside Box6
3Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
372Total Passes430
270Accurate Passes324
73%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Blackpool

Hull City and Blackpool drew 1-1 in League One on January 16, 2021.

Goals: M. Wilks (51'), J. Yates (81').

Blackpool controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.