Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hannover 96
Hannover 96
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
B. Kallman 90'
I. Okon 43'
H. Matsuda 17'
M. Kaars 63'
8/23/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 3Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Hannover 9650%
×Draw22%
1. FC Magdeburg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hannover 96
2.02
1. FC Magdeburg
1.50

Hannover 96 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hannover 96
2.10
1. FC Magdeburg
1.91

allows per match

Hannover 96
1.08
1. FC Magdeburg
1.95

finishing

Hannover 96-0.37scores less
1. FC Magdeburg+0.01on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hannover 96 or draw
71%
Hannover 96 or 1. FC Magdeburg
78%
Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg
50%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 wins by 2+
29%
1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hannover 96 1+ goals
87%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
60%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
33%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
78%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
44%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
63%
1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.08 · 11 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 attack 2.10 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.91 + Hannover 96 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hannover 96 scores more
50%
level
22%
1. FC Magdeburg scores more
29%

Hannover 96 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. NollHannover 96Hannover 96 · G
8.2

Match Events

17'
H. Matsuda
40'
Noël Aséko
43'
I. Okon↳ M. Neubauer
45+2'
Max Geschwill
46'
W. Taibi← N. Aseko-Nkili
54'
Lubambo Musonda
55'
D. Stalmach← S. Gnaka
55'
A. Nollenberger← M. Geschwill
56'
Enzo Leopold
58'
D. Yokota← M. Bundu
59'
Marcus Mathisen
63'
M. Kaars
75'
B. Allgeier← H. Matsuda
76'
B. Kallman← B. Pichler
76'
F. Michel← L. Musonda
76'
L. Hyrylainen← L. Ulrich
85'
H. Blank← V. Ghita
89'
A. Holmstrom← A. Hoti
90+2'
Daisuke Yokota
90+5'
Benjamin KällmanGoal confirmed
90'
B. Kallman↳ J. Rochelt

Possession

47%Hannover

Shots

23Hannover

Pass accuracy

50%Hannover

Statistics

Hannover1.
Overview
47%Possession53%
23Total Shots14
4Corners2
22Fouls11
Shots
23Total Shots14
8On Target6
7Off Target6
8Blocked2
15Inside Box9
8Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
400Total Passes462
328Accurate Passes381
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
22Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 23, 2025.

Goals: H. Matsuda (17'), I. Okon (43'), M. Kaars (63'), B. Kallman (90').

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 23.

The match was played at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena in Hannover.