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1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
B. Atik 53'
E. Leopold 56'
D. Yokota 38'
1/30/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Avnet-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg40%
×Draw25%
Hannover 9635%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Magdeburg
1.44
Hannover 96
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.64
Hannover 96
1.63

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.05
Hannover 96
1.24

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg-0.31scores less
Hannover 96+0.28scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw
65%
1. FC Magdeburg or Hannover 96
75%
Draw or Hannover 96
60%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
19%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
76%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
42%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
18%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
74%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
39%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
53%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 12 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.64 + Hannover 96 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hannover 96 attack 1.63 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more
40%
level
25%
Hannover 96 scores more
35%

1. FC Magdeburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
E. LeopoldHannover 96Hannover 96 · M
8.3

Match Events

38'
D. Yokota↳ B. Kallman
46'
J. Hugonet← F. Michel
46'
N. Weisshaupt← D. Yokota
53'
B. Atik↳ D. Stalmach
56'
E. Leopold↳ E. Saad
58'
Virgil Ghiță
71'
Noël Aséko
71'
S. T. Thordarson← N. Aseko-Nkili
71'
B. Pichler← B. Kallman
73'
Maurice Neubauer
73'
R. Ghrieb← P. Hercher
73'
S. Gnaka← D. Stalmach
80'
W. Kokolo← E. Saad
88'
M. Breunig← L. Ulrich
90+7'
Barış Atik
90+3'
Maik Nawrocki
90'
W. Taibi← K. Oudenne

Possession

57%1.

Shots

131.

Pass accuracy

51%1.

Statistics

1.Hannover
Overview
57%Possession43%
13Total Shots12
0.70Expected Goals (xG)1.66
6Corners3
11Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots12
4On Target3
4Off Target5
5Blocked4
6Inside Box11
7Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
511Total Passes379
434Accurate Passes315
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls18
1Yellow Cards4
0Offsides1

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96

Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 30, 2026.

Goals: D. Yokota (38'), B. Atik (53'), E. Leopold (56').

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Avnet-Arena in Magdeburg.