1. FC Magdeburg 0–3 Hannover 96: Result & Stats

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hannover 96

H. Nielsen 75'

A. Voglsammer 23', 13'

10/27/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 10Avnet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg40%

×Draw25%

Hannover 9635%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchHannover 96

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.34

1. FC Magdeburg

1.44

Hannover 96

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

1.63

1.05

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.64

Hannover 96

1.63

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.05

Hannover 96

1.24

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg-0.31scores less

Hannover 96+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

Hannover 96 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

65%

1. FC Magdeburg or Hannover 96

75%

Draw or Hannover 96

60%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

19%

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

76%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

42%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

18%

Hannover 96 1+ goals

74%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

39%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

53%

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 12 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.64 + Hannover 96 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hannover 96 attack 1.63 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

40%

level

25%

Hannover 96 scores more

35%

1. FC Magdeburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

A. Voglsammer

Hannover 96 · F

8.5

Match Events

4'

Josh Knight

13'

A. Voglsammer↳ E. Leopold

20'

21'

23'

33'

46'

A. Nollenberger← M. El Hankouri

59'

M. Momuluh← J. Ngankam

64'

Bryan Teixeira← X. Amaechi

64'

A. El-Zein← C. Krempicki

71'

H. Nielsen← N. Tresoldi

71'

J. Rochelt← A. Voglsammer

75'

H. Nielsen

77'

Jean Hugonet

78'

T. Ito← S. Gnaka

82'

M. Christiansen← F. Kunze

83'

Enzo Leopold

84'

S. Loric← P. Hercher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.Hannover

Overview

71%Possession29%

20Total Shots12

10Corners3

9Fouls17

Shots

20Total Shots12

5On Target6

5Off Target2

10Blocked4

10Inside Box9

10Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

618Total Passes247

506Accurate Passes155

82%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1