Hamburger SV 4–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf

O. Stange 90+4'

A. Karabec 66'

D. Selke 40'

M. Muheim 7'

D. Kownacki 18'

3/8/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 25Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Hamburger SV49%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

Hamburger SV

1.75

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.25

Hamburger SV creates 40% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 102 away

2.12

creates per match

1.38

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.12

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.38

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.11

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

73%

Hamburger SV or Fortuna Düsseldorf

76%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

51%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

27%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

83%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

52%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

25%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

71%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

36%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

64%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.38 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

49%

level

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

27%

Hamburger SV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Daniel Elfadli

Hamburger SV · D

8.2

Match Events

7'

M. Muheim

8'

Florian Kastenmeier

18'

D. Kownacki↳ M. Kwarteng

40'

D. Selke↳ J. Dompé

52'

S. Appelkamp← M. Kwarteng

58'

Jamil Siebert

66'

A. Karabec↳ E. Sahiti

68'

Davie Selke

68'

Andre Hoffmann

76'

R. Königsdörffer← D. Selke

76'

V. Vermeij← D. Pejčinović

76'

E. Iyoha← A. Hoffmann

77'

S. Hefti← W. Mikelbrencis

85'

Fábio Baldé← E. Sahiti

85'

M. Richter← A. Karabec

86'

J. Niemiec← D. Kownacki

86'

M. van Brederode← N. Gavory

90+5'

Matthias Zimmermann

90+3'

O. Stange← L. Reis

90+4'

O. Stange↳ S. Hefti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamburgerFortuna

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots9

8Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots9

9On Target1

4Off Target4

5Blocked4

12Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

638Total Passes380

585Accurate Passes314

92%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1