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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
C. Tzolis 63'
F. Klaus 11'
3/8/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 25Düsseldorf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf39%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.58
Hamburger SV
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 119 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
Hamburger SV
1.39

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
63%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
19%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
47%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
21%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
78%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
45%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
52%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
39%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
37%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
C. TzolisFortuna DusseldorfFortuna Dusseldorf · M
8.0

Match Events

11'
F. Klaus↳ C. Tzolis
14'
M. Heyer← N. Katterbach
27'
Moritz Heyer
44'
J. Siebert← J. Quarshie
51'
Moritz Heyer
51'
Moritz Heyer
56'
Jamil Siebert
58'
R. Königsdörffer← L. Reis
60'
D. Jastrzembski← F. Klaus
60'
M. Mustapha← C. Daferner
63'
C. Tzolis↳ D. Jastrzembski
72'
A. Suhonen← J. Meffert
72'
L. Öztunalı← I. Van der Brempt
72'
A. Németh← I. Pherai
74'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
87'
K. Manu← Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
87'
T. Uchino← N. Gavory

Possession

37%Fortuna

Shots

8Fortuna

Pass accuracy

47%Fortuna

Statistics

FortunaHamburger
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots12
4Corners1
14Fouls6
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target0
1Off Target6
3Blocked6
5Inside Box5
3Outside Box7
Passing
37%Possession63%
376Total Passes636
286Accurate Passes544
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls6
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hamburger SV

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat Hamburger SV 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 8, 2024.

Goals: F. Klaus (11'), C. Tzolis (63').

Hamburger SV controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Düsseldorf Arena in Düsseldorf.