Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–3 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hamburger SV

R. Glatzel 90', 83' (pen)

J. Dompé 8'

10/6/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 8Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf39%

×Draw24%

Hamburger SV37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.52

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.58

Hamburger SV

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 116 away

1.77

creates per match

1.74

1.31

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.77

Hamburger SV

1.74

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.31

Hamburger SV

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

Hamburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

63%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or Hamburger SV

76%

Draw or Hamburger SV

61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

19%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

47%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

21%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

78%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

45%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

52%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.40 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.77 + Hamburger SV defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

39%

level

24%

Hamburger SV scores more

37%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Glatzel

Hamburger SV · F

8.9

Match Events

8'

35'

45'

46'

63'

I. Pherai← M. Richter

65'

Noah Katterbach

69'

J. Niemiec← F. Klaus

69'

M. van Brederode← T. Rossmann

74'

R. Königsdörffer← D. Selke

74'

A. Karabec← J. Dompé

78'

V. Vermeij← D. Kownacki

78'

S. Appelkamp← V. Lunddal Friðriksson

81'

Giovanni Haag

83'

R. GlatzelPenalty

85'

Andre Hoffmann

90+2'

W. Mikelbrencis← N. Katterbach

90+2'

D. Hadžikadunić← J. Meffert

90'

R. Glatzel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaHamburger

Overview

49%Possession51%

22Total Shots18

10Corners3

8Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots18

6On Target5

9Off Target9

7Blocked4

20Inside Box13

2Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

460Total Passes497

415Accurate Passes443

90%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1