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Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
L. Bénes 83' (pen)
9/29/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 8Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Hamburger SV49%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Dusseldorf27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.75
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.25

Hamburger SV creates 40% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.12
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.11
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.39

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
73%
Hamburger SV or Fortuna Dusseldorf
76%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
51%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
27%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
83%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
52%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
71%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
36%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
64%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
49%
level
24%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
27%

Hamburger SV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. BénesHamburger SVHamburger SV · M
8.2

Match Events

41'
Dennis Hadžikadunić
47'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
54'
Ignace Van der Brempt
56'
Yannik Engelhardt
64'
S. Appelkamp← Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
64'
V. Vermeij← D. Jastrzembski
67'
J. Dompé← L. Öztunalı
72'
A. Németh← R. Glatzel
74'
Matthias Zimmermann
76'
Matthias Zimmermann
76'
Matthias Zimmermann
80'
T. Uchino← C. Tzolis
82'
László BénesPenalty confirmed
82'
Emmanuel Iyoha
83'
L. BénesPenalty
88'
J. Niemiec← F. Klaus
88'
D. Ginczek← A. Tanaka
90+6'
Jean-Luc Dompe
90+6'
Jamil Siebert

Possession

63%Hamburger

Shots

11Hamburger

Pass accuracy

53%Hamburger

Statistics

HamburgerFortuna
Overview
63%Possession37%
11Total Shots9
8Corners3
10Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target2
2Off Target6
5Blocked1
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
577Total Passes337
507Accurate Passes267
88%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls14
3Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Dusseldorf

Hamburger SV beat Fortuna Dusseldorf 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on September 29, 2023.

Goals: L. Bénes (83' pen).

Hamburger SV controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.