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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
F. Klaus 28'
D. Kownacki 21'
C. Klarer 75' (OG)
L. Bénes 5'
3/31/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 26Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf39%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.58
Hamburger SV
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 116 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
Hamburger SV
1.40

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
63%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
19%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
47%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
21%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
78%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
45%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
52%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.40 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + Hamburger SV defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
39%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
37%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
F. KlausFortuna DusseldorfFortuna Dusseldorf · M
8.2

Match Events

4'
Jordy de Wijs
5'
L. Bénes
21'
D. Kownacki↳ F. Klaus
28'
F. Klaus↳ R. Hennings
47'
Rouwen Hennings
54'
Miro Muheim
57'
Jonas Meffert
61'
A. Suhonen← L. Bénes
63'
Ao Tanaka
66'
J. Niemiec← R. Hennings
75'
C. KlarerOwn goal
76'
Dawid Kownacki
78'
Francisco Montero
80'
K. Peterson← F. Klaus
80'
D. Ginczek← E. Iyoha
81'
A. Németh← B. Jatta
83'
J. Dompé← S. Kittel
84'
T. Oberdorf← C. Klarer
84'
S. Appelkamp← A. Tanaka
88'
Francisco Montero
88'
Francisco Montero

Possession

38%Fortuna

Shots

16Fortuna

Pass accuracy

46%Fortuna

Statistics

FortunaHamburger
Overview
38%Possession62%
16Total Shots11
4Corners1
16Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots11
5On Target4
6Off Target6
5Blocked1
7Inside Box8
9Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
278Total Passes480
202Accurate Passes408
73%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls9
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hamburger SV

Fortuna Dusseldorf and Hamburger SV drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on March 31, 2023.

Goals: L. Bénes (5'), D. Kownacki (21'), F. Klaus (28'), C. Klarer (75' o.g.).

Hamburger SV controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.