Guarani Campinas 1–0 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie C

Guarani Campinas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CSA

Bruno Santos 30'

6/28/2025

Serie C · Round 10Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guarani Campinas47%

×Draw30%

CSA23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.76

Guarani Campinas

1.23

CSA

0.76

Guarani Campinas creates 62% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

1.45

creates per match

0.79

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.45

CSA

0.79

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.73

CSA

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

77%

Guarani Campinas or CSA

70%

Draw or CSA

53%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

21%

CSA wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

71%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

35%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

13%

CSA 1+ goals

53%

CSA 2+ goals

18%

CSA 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

67%

CSA (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

CSA away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.45 + CSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSA attack 0.79 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

47%

level

30%

CSA scores more

23%

Guarani Campinas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

24'

30'

32'

33'

36'

41'

43'

46'

46'

Brayann← Silas

46'

Luciano Naninho← Baianinho

64'

Marcelinho← Gustavo Nicola

68'

Giva← Mateus Sarara

68'

Kaua Jesus← Isaque

72'

D. Silva← Alan Santos

72'

Roberto← Enzo

72'

Igor Bahia← Tiago Marques

79'

Luiz Miguel← Emerson

90+6'

Guarani

CSA

1

2

3

4

6

▼

Enzo

5

Camacho

8

▼

Nicola

7

▼

Silas

11

Cachoeira

18

▼

Baianinho

9

▼

1

2

3

4

▼

Santos

6

▼

Emerson

5

▼

Sarara

8

Camargo

7

▼

Kelvi

10

Torres

11

▼

Isaque

9

⚽

Santos

Manager: Marcelo Fernandes

46'▲Allyson←▼Rian Kelvi

68'▲Giva←▼Mateus Sarara

68'▲Kaua Jesus←▼Isaque

72'▲D. Silva←▼Alan Santos

79'▲Luiz Miguel←▼Emerson

Guarani Campinas substitutes

12Junior22Justen13Allyson14Silva16Vitinho15Flor18Giva20Pablo21Jesus17Mirandinha19Junior23Miguel

46'▲Brayann←▼Silas

46'▲Luciano Naninho←▼Baianinho

64'▲Marcelinho←▼Gustavo Nicola

72'▲Roberto←▼Enzo

72'▲Igor Bahia←▼Tiago Marques

CSA substitutes

12Georgemy13Gustavo14Albuquerque15Kevyn16Costa26Roberto10Brayann20Naninho17Cavalleri19Bahia22Marcelinho