Guarani Campinas 1–0 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie B

Guarani Campinas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSA

Regis 46'

9/7/2021

Serie B · Round 23Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Guarani Campinas42%

×Draw30%

CSA28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.88

Guarani Campinas

1.16

CSA

0.88

Guarani Campinas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 67 away

1.21

creates per match

0.88

0.87

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.21

CSA

0.88

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.87

CSA

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

72%

Guarani Campinas or CSA

70%

Draw or CSA

58%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

18%

CSA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

69%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

32%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

11%

CSA 1+ goals

59%

CSA 2+ goals

22%

CSA 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

60%

CSA (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.87 · 111 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.21 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

CSA attack 0.88 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

42%

level

30%

CSA scores more

28%

Guarani Campinas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Rafael Martins

Guarani Campinas · G

7.3

Match Events

46'

Regis← Andrigo

46'

Maxwell← Lucão do Break

46'

Regis↳ Bruno Sávio

51'

Carlão← Thales

58'

Nilson← Silas

69'

Ludke

73'

Índio← Rodrigo Andrade

73'

Reinaldo← Iury

73'

80'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniCSA

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots13

2Corners9

16Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target2

6Off Target6

1Blocked5

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

383Total Passes476

302Accurate Passes392

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1