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Guarani Campinas vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSA
CSA
6/19/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 13Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Guarani Campinas42%
×Draw30%
CSA28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.16
CSA
0.88

Guarani Campinas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 67 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
1.21
CSA
0.88

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
0.87
CSA
1.10

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

CSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
72%
Guarani Campinas or CSA
70%
Draw or CSA
58%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
18%
CSA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
69%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
32%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
11%
CSA 1+ goals
59%
CSA 2+ goals
22%
CSA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
60%
CSA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.87 · 111 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.21 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

CSA attack 0.88 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
42%
level
30%
CSA scores more
28%

Guarani Campinas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
Marcelo CarnéCSACSA · G
7.9

Match Events

46'
Júlio César← Ernando
59'
Yago César← Bruno José
59'
Silas← Rodrigo Andrade
72'
Marco Túlio← Osvaldo
73'
Didira← Lourenço
76'
Lucas Ramon← Diogo Mateus
80'
Bruno Mota← Geovane
83'
Maxwell← Lucão do Break
87'
Yann Rolim← Gabriel
90+5'
Didira

Possession

50%Guarani

Shots

16Guarani

Pass accuracy

50%Guarani

Statistics

GuaraniCSA
Overview
50%Possession50%
16Total Shots9
5Corners4
14Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots9
3On Target1
7Off Target8
6Blocked0
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
423Total Passes425
348Accurate Passes352
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Guarani Campinas vs CSA

Guarani Campinas and CSA drew 0-0 in Serie B on June 19, 2022.

Guarani Campinas controlled possession (50%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas, São Paulo.