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CSA vs Guarani Campinas — Serie B 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
Silvinho 67'
Matheus Bidu 51'
6/15/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 4Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA49%
×Draw27%
Guarani Campinas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.39
Guarani Campinas
0.88

CSA creates 58% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 107 away

creates per match

CSA
1.43
Guarani Campinas
0.91

allows per match

CSA
0.84
Guarani Campinas
1.34

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Guarani Campinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw
76%
CSA or Guarani Campinas
73%
Draw or Guarani Campinas
51%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
24%
Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
75%
CSA 2+ goals
40%
CSA 3+ goals
16%
Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
59%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
22%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
67%
Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guarani Campinas attack 0.91 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CSA scores more
49%
level
27%
Guarani Campinas scores more
24%

CSA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
GabrielCSACSA · M
7.7

Match Events

-5'
Cristovam
26'
Pablo← Ian
46'
Geovane← Gabriel Tonini
51'
Matheus Bidu↳ Tony
61'
Dellatorre
62'
Silvinho← Nadson
62'
Vítor Costa← Kevyn
63'
Lucão do Break← Matheus Davó
63'
Eliel← Tony
67'
Silvinho↳ Gabriel
71'
Matheus Bidu
75'
Bruno Sávio
77'
Allanzinho← Bruno Sávio
77'
Titi← Matheus
87'
Vitor Costa
87'
Cristovam← Norberto Neto
87'
Marco Túlio← Yago César
90+3'
Iury
90+6'
Eliel da Silva
90+3'
Bruno Silva

Possession

52%CSA

Shots

8CSA

Pass accuracy

51%CSA

Statistics

CSAGuarani
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots7
5Corners6
13Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots7
3On Target2
4Off Target3
1Blocked2
4Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
468Total Passes436
395Accurate Passes358
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls15
4Yellow Cards4
4Offsides0

Serie B: CSA 1–1 Guarani Campinas

CSA and Guarani Campinas drew 1-1 in Serie B on June 15, 2021.

Goals: Matheus Bidu (51'), Silvinho (67').

CSA controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.