CSA 1–2 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats | Serie B

CSA

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Guarani Campinas

Osvaldo 17'

Yuri 47'

Isaque 27'

9/30/2022

Serie B · Round 32Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA49%

×Draw27%

Guarani Campinas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.88

CSA

1.39

Guarani Campinas

0.88

CSA creates 58% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 107 away

1.43

creates per match

0.91

0.84

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

CSA

1.43

Guarani Campinas

0.91

allows per match

CSA

0.84

Guarani Campinas

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw

76%

CSA or Guarani Campinas

73%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

51%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

24%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

75%

CSA 2+ goals

40%

CSA 3+ goals

16%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

59%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

22%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

67%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guarani Campinas attack 0.91 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CSA scores more

49%

level

27%

Guarani Campinas scores more

24%

CSA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Mauricio Kozlinski

Guarani Campinas · G

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Leandro Vilela

7'

R. Rios← Leandro Vilela

17'

Osvaldo↳ Yann Rolim

27'

Isaque↳ Diogo Mateus

46'

Yago César← Giovanni Augusto

47'

Yuri↳ Jamerson

50'

55'

60'

60'

63'

Madison← Isaque

63'

Edson← Bruno José

77'

Índio← Rodrigo Andrade

82'

Rodrigo Rodrigues← Lucas Barcelos

90'

Edson← Lucas Marques

90'

Rogério← Diego Renan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSAGuarani

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots6

12Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots6

8On Target2

6Off Target2

4Blocked2

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

448Total Passes314

358Accurate Passes233

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0