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Guadalajara Chivas vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
D. Aguirre 45'
A. Gonzalez 17'
1/10/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas51%
×Draw24%
CF Pachuca26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.75
CF Pachuca
1.17

Guadalajara Chivas creates 50% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
2.00
CF Pachuca
1.43

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
0.91
CF Pachuca
1.49

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
74%
Guadalajara Chivas or CF Pachuca
76%
Draw or CF Pachuca
49%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
28%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
83%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
52%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
25%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
69%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
33%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
67%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 2.00 + CF Pachuca defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.75

CF Pachuca attack 1.43 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
51%
level
24%
CF Pachuca scores more
26%

Guadalajara Chivas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. AlvarezGuadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas · M
8.3

Match Events

17'
A. Gonzalez
45'
D. Aguirre↳ E. Alvarez
46'
S. Rondon← P. Pedraza
55'
Ari Contreras
62'
M. Gomez← R. Ledezma
62'
A. Sepulveda← A. Gonzalez
67'
C. Rivera← L. Quinones
67'
C. Hernandez← A. Contreras
68'
S. Sandoval← R. Alvarado
78'
O. Idrissi← Kenedy
83'
Alexei Domínguez
86'
H. Camberos← B. Gutierrez
86'
Y. Padilla← E. Alvarez
88'
J. Cadiz← A. Dominguez

Possession

58%Guadalajara

Shots

18Guadalajara

Pass accuracy

52%Guadalajara

Statistics

GuadalajaraCF
Overview
58%Possession42%
18Total Shots10
5Corners2
10Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots10
6On Target2
10Off Target5
2Blocked3
12Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
533Total Passes402
453Accurate Passes321
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Liga MX: Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 CF Pachuca

Guadalajara Chivas beat CF Pachuca 2-0 in Liga MX on January 10, 2026.

Goals: A. Gonzalez (17'), D. Aguirre (45').

Guadalajara Chivas controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Akron in Zapopan.