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CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
A. Gonzalez 71'
11/3/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

CF Pachuca46%
×Draw25%
Guadalajara Chivas29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.60
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

CF Pachuca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.70
Guadalajara Chivas
1.40

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.06
Guadalajara Chivas
1.50

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
71%
CF Pachuca or Guadalajara Chivas
75%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
54%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
24%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
80%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
47%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
22%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
71%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
35%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
61%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.70 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.40 + CF Pachuca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
46%
level
25%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
29%

CF Pachuca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
S. D. BarretoCF PachucaCF Pachuca · D
7.7

Match Events

31'
Jorge Berlanga
35'
Luis QuiñonesRed card cancelled
36'
Luis Quiñones
46'
C. Sanchez← I. Luna
47'
Fernando González
54'
R. Ledezma← S. Sandoval
65'
Kenedy← G. Togni
71'
A. Gonzalez↳ R. Alvarado
72'
W. Carvalho← P. Pedraza
72'
J. Cadiz← E. Valencia
73'
Luis Romo
77'
G. Sepulveda← R. Alvarado
77'
E. Gutierrez← E. Alvarez
78'
I. Hernandez← J. Berlanga
83'
M. Gomez← A. Gonzalez
83'
T. Wilke← O. Govea

Possession

53%CF

Shots

14CF

Pass accuracy

51%CF

Statistics

CFGuadalajara
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots15
0.61Expected Goals (xG)1.40
1Corners2
11Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots15
3On Target3
9Off Target7
2Blocked5
8Inside Box8
6Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
523Total Passes458
445Accurate Passes371
85%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat CF Pachuca 1-0 in Liga MX on November 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Gonzalez (71').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.