Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

CF Pachuca

L. Romo 37'

A. Pulido 18'

A. González 7'

2/23/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas51%

×Draw24%

CF Pachuca25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.13

Guadalajara Chivas

1.73

CF Pachuca

1.13

Guadalajara Chivas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

2.00

creates per match

1.34

0.91

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

2.00

CF Pachuca

1.34

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

0.91

CF Pachuca

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

75%

Guadalajara Chivas or CF Pachuca

76%

Draw or CF Pachuca

49%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

28%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

82%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

52%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

25%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

68%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

31%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

67%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 2.00 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

51%

level

24%

CF Pachuca scores more

25%

Guadalajara Chivas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

E. Montiel

CF Pachuca · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

A. González↳ O. Idrissi

18'

37'

42'

45+4'

57'

E. Rodríguez← A. González

61'

A. González← A. Pulido

61'

L. Rey← A. Mozo

70'

J. López← John Kennedy

70'

C. Sánchez← L. Rodríguez

74'

Y. Padilla← H. Camberos

79'

80'

80'

82'

82'

82'

I. Hernández← S. Homenchenko

88'

F. Beltrán← A. González

88'

R. González← R. Alvarado

90+2'

C. Moreno

90+6'

E. Gutierrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraCF

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots19

2Corners11

18Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots19

4On Target4

3Off Target11

0Blocked4

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box9

Passing

38%Possession62%

312Total Passes505

217Accurate Passes434

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls7

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2