CF Pachuca 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Guadalajara Chivas

G. Sepúlveda 41'

R. Alvarado 20'

10/19/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CF Pachuca42%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.23

CF Pachuca

1.43

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

CF Pachuca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

1.41

1.05

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.50

Guadalajara Chivas

1.41

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.05

Guadalajara Chivas

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

68%

CF Pachuca or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

58%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

20%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

76%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

42%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

17%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

71%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

35%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

56%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + CF Pachuca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

42%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

32%

CF Pachuca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Alvarado

Guadalajara Chivas · F

8.6

Match Events

20'

R. Alvarado↳ R. Marín

41'

G. Sepúlveda↳ R. Alvarado

45'

Gilberto Sepúlveda

46'

Á. Mena← S. Hernández

46'

63'

64'

65'

69'

73'

S. de los Ríos← B. González

73'

C. Sánchez← L. Rodríguez

80'

Mateo Chávez

84'

C. Cisneros← F. Beltrán

84'

Y. Padilla← R. Alvarado

86'

P. Pedraza← E. Montiel

90+3'

Faber Andrés Gil

90+2'

Fernando González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFGuadalajara

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots3

14Corners6

10Fouls18

Shots

22Total Shots3

7On Target2

7Off Target0

8Blocked1

7Inside Box2

15Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

476Total Passes405

408Accurate Passes317

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat CF Pachuca 2-0 in Liga MX on October 19, 2024.

Goals: R. Alvarado (20'), G. Sepúlveda (41').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (54%) and registered 22 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas