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CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2021

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
G. Cabral 42' (OG)
4/13/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

CF Pachuca44%
×Draw27%
Guadalajara Chivas30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.40
Guadalajara Chivas
1.11

CF Pachuca creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 95 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.65
Guadalajara Chivas
1.15

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.07
Guadalajara Chivas
1.16

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
70%
CF Pachuca or Guadalajara Chivas
73%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
56%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
21%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
75%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
41%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
17%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
67%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
30%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
59%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.65 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.15 + CF Pachuca defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
44%
level
27%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
30%

CF Pachuca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
É. SánchezCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
7.3

Match Events

20'
Gilberto Sepúlveda
29'
Erick Sánchez
36'
Jorge Berlanga
42'
G. CabralOwn goal
45'
Pavel Pérez
46'
E. Montiel← P. Pedraza
46'
M. Rodríguez← J. Hernández
49'
Roberto Alvarado
60'
L. Rodríguez← J. Berlanga
73'
Fernando Beltran
73'
R. González← I. Brizuela
73'
J. Sánchez← A. Mozo
79'
L. Sepúlveda← J. Castillo
79'
C. Cowell← P. Pérez
80'
Leonardo Sepulveda
82'
R. de la Rosa← É. Sánchez
86'
José Rangel
86'
A. Briseño← R. Marín

Possession

56%CF

Shots

16CF

Pass accuracy

52%CF

Statistics

CFGuadalajara
Overview
56%Possession44%
16Total Shots9
11Corners1
15Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots9
3On Target2
6Off Target6
7Blocked1
8Inside Box3
8Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
412Total Passes336
327Accurate Passes248
79%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls17
2Yellow Cards6
1Offsides2

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat CF Pachuca 1-0 in Liga MX on April 13, 2024.

Goals: G. Cabral (42' o.g.).

CF Pachuca controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.