Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guadalajara Chivas vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2018

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
9/19/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas42%
×Draw26%
CF Pachuca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.42
CF Pachuca
1.18

Guadalajara Chivas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 150 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.42
CF Pachuca
1.32

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.04
CF Pachuca
1.43

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
69%
Guadalajara Chivas or CF Pachuca
74%
Draw or CF Pachuca
58%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
20%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
76%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
41%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
17%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
69%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
33%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
58%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + CF Pachuca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

CF Pachuca attack 1.32 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
42%
level
26%
CF Pachuca scores more
31%

Guadalajara Chivas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs CF Pachuca

Guadalajara Chivas beat CF Pachuca 1-0 in Liga MX on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.