Groningen 0–1 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

Groningen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ADO Den Haag

H. Veerman 16'

9/15/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 6Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen46%

×Draw24%

ADO Den Haag29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GroningenExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Groningen

1.64

ADO Den Haag

1.25

Groningen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 95 away

2.00

creates per match

1.77

0.74

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Groningen

2.00

ADO Den Haag

1.77

allows per match

Groningen

0.74

ADO Den Haag

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Groningen or draw

71%

Groningen or ADO Den Haag

76%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

54%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+

24%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals

81%

Groningen 2+ goals

49%

Groningen 3+ goals

23%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

71%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

36%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)

61%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.64

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Groningen scores more

46%

level

24%

ADO Den Haag scores more

29%

Groningen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

T. Asante

ADO Den Haag · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

H. Veerman↳ J. van der Sande

44'

S. Komljenovic← L. Vigen

46'

D. Irandust← P. Abraham

68'

Sacha Komljenovic

70'

Kevin van Veen

72'

F. Turay← M. Rente

72'

J. Schreuders← N. Emeran

76'

G. Siereveld← S. Komljenovic

85'

T. van Bergen← L. Valente

88'

Henri Koudossou

90+6'

Daryl van Mieghem

90+3'

K. Lien← I. Määttä

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GroningenADO

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots7

16Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots7

2On Target2

5Off Target3

10Blocked2

7Inside Box5

10Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

504Total Passes277

420Accurate Passes183

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1