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ADO Den Haag vs Groningen — Eredivisie 2026

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Groningen
Groningen
S. Pinas 23' (OG)
9/20/2020EredivisieEredivisie · Round 2Cars Jeans Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

ADO Den Haag41%
×Draw25%
Groningen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
1.52
Groningen
1.36

ADO Den Haag creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 115 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
1.25
Groningen
0.99

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.73
Groningen
1.79

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
66%
ADO Den Haag or Groningen
75%
Draw or Groningen
59%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
20%
Groningen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
78%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
45%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
20%
Groningen 1+ goals
74%
Groningen 2+ goals
39%
Groningen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
55%
Groningen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

Groningen away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.79 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 1.25 + Groningen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Groningen attack 0.99 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
41%
level
25%
Groningen scores more
34%

ADO Den Haag at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
B. van HintumGroningenGroningen · D
7.9

Match Events

23'
S. PinasOwn goal
45'
Wessel Dammers
46'
I. Elmkies← A. Rațiu
48'
Michiel Kramer
58'
J. Arweiler← B. Ould-Chikh
58'
S. Bourard← V. Besuijen
67'
K. de Boer← I. Elmkies
72'
T. Suslov← M. El Hankouri
72'
A. El Messaoudi← R. Lundqvist
83'
A. Ćatić← L. Faye
83'
T. Poll← A. Hrustic
88'
P. Joosten← J. Larsen

Possession

43%ADO

Shots

6ADO

Pass accuracy

47%ADO

Statistics

ADOGroningen
Overview
43%Possession57%
6Total Shots12
3Corners8
12Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots12
0On Target6
3Off Target4
3Blocked2
3Inside Box7
3Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
357Total Passes471
255Accurate Passes381
71%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag vs Groningen

Groningen beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 in Eredivisie on September 20, 2020.

Goals: S. Pinas (23' o.g.).

Groningen controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Cars Jeans Stadion in Den Haag.