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Groningen vs ADO Den Haag — Eredivisie 2026

Groningen
Groningen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
A. da Cruz 68'
J. Larsen 43'
R. Lundqvist 18'
1/26/2021EredivisieEredivisie · Round 19Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Groningen52%
×Draw24%
ADO Den Haag24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.73
ADO Den Haag
1.10

Groningen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 52 away

creates per match

Groningen
1.27
ADO Den Haag
1.10

allows per match

Groningen
1.10
ADO Den Haag
2.19

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
76%
Groningen or ADO Den Haag
76%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
48%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
28%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
82%
Groningen 2+ goals
52%
Groningen 3+ goals
25%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
67%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
30%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
68%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 113 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.27 + ADO Den Haag defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

ADO Den Haag attack 1.10 + Groningen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Groningen scores more
52%
level
24%
ADO Den Haag scores more
24%

Groningen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. LundqvistGroningenGroningen · M
7.7

Match Events

18'
R. Lundqvist
38'
Samy Bourard
39'
B. Ould-Chikh← M. van Ewijk
43'
J. Larsen↳ G. Gudmundsson
54'
A. Ćatić← S. Bourard
68'
A. da Cruz↳ M. El Hankouri
70'
J. van Kaam← M. El Hankouri
71'
M. te Wierik← T. Suslov
71'
S. Schreck← A. da Cruz
73'
N. Karelis← M. Kramer
73'
T. Gomelt← J. Goossens
73'
S. Pinas← B. Kemper
76'
Amar Ćatić
86'
K. Slor← G. Gudmundsson
86'
T. Dallinga← J. Larsen

Possession

56%Groningen

Shots

14Groningen

Pass accuracy

52%Groningen

Statistics

GroningenADO
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots7
4Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots7
6On Target1
6Off Target3
2Blocked3
7Inside Box2
7Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
471Total Passes367
394Accurate Passes286
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Groningen vs ADO Den Haag

Groningen beat ADO Den Haag 3-0 in Eredivisie on January 26, 2021.

Goals: R. Lundqvist (18'), J. Larsen (43'), A. da Cruz (68').

Groningen controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium in Groningen.