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ADO Den Haag vs Groningen — Eerste Divisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Groningen
Groningen
T. van Bergen 65'
R. Postema 18'
3/29/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ADO Den Haag36%
×Draw25%
Groningen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
1.42
Groningen
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 19 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
2.00
Groningen
1.74

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.28
Groningen
0.84

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
60%
ADO Den Haag or Groningen
75%
Draw or Groningen
64%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
16%
Groningen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
76%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
41%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
17%
Groningen 1+ goals
78%
Groningen 2+ goals
44%
Groningen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
47%
Groningen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + Groningen defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Groningen attack 1.74 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
36%
level
25%
Groningen scores more
40%

Groningen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
H. KoudossouADO Den HaagADO Den Haag · M
7.5

Match Events

18'
R. Postema↳ L. Valente
24'
Matteo Waem
37'
Thom van Bergen
60'
J. van der Sande← D. van Mieghem
65'
T. van Bergen↳ J. Hove
76'
J. van Wolfgang← A. Absalem
76'
S. Esajas← J. Vlak
80'
Leandro Bacuna
85'
T. Blokzijl← T. van Bergen
85'
Rui Mendes← L. Valente
87'
Hidde Jurjus
89'
M. Sellouki← L. Vigen
89'
M. Houwaart← H. Koudossou

Possession

56%ADO

Shots

7ADO

Pass accuracy

51%ADO

Statistics

ADOGroningen
Overview
56%Possession44%
7Total Shots8
3Corners2
14Fouls5
Shots
7Total Shots8
2On Target4
3Off Target2
2Blocked2
4Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
499Total Passes393
379Accurate Passes290
76%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls5
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag vs Groningen

Groningen beat ADO Den Haag 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 29, 2024.

Goals: R. Postema (18'), T. van Bergen (65').

ADO Den Haag controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in ‘s-Gravenhage.