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Groningen vs ADO Den Haag — Eredivisie 2026

Groningen
Groningen
CANC
12:30
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
5/3/2020EredivisieEredivisie · Round 33Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Groningen52%
×Draw24%
ADO Den Haag24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.73
ADO Den Haag
1.10

Groningen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 52 away

creates per match

Groningen
1.27
ADO Den Haag
1.10

allows per match

Groningen
1.10
ADO Den Haag
2.19

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
76%
Groningen or ADO Den Haag
76%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
48%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
28%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
82%
Groningen 2+ goals
52%
Groningen 3+ goals
25%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
67%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
30%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
68%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 113 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.27 + ADO Den Haag defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

ADO Den Haag attack 1.10 + Groningen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Groningen scores more
52%
level
24%
ADO Den Haag scores more
24%

Groningen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Groningen vs ADO Den Haag — Match Preview

Groningen face ADO Den Haag on May 3, 2020 in this Eredivisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Groningen host ADO Den Haag at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.