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Granada CF vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cadiz
Cadiz
10/25/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF48%
×Draw27%
Cadiz25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.40
Cadiz
0.92

Granada CF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.56
Cadiz
1.08

allows per match

Granada CF
0.76
Cadiz
1.23

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Cadiz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
75%
Granada CF or Cadiz
73%
Draw or Cadiz
52%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
23%
Cadiz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
75%
Granada CF 2+ goals
41%
Granada CF 3+ goals
17%
Cadiz 1+ goals
60%
Cadiz 2+ goals
23%
Cadiz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
66%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Cadiz defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cadiz attack 1.08 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Granada CF scores more
48%
level
27%
Cadiz scores more
25%

Granada CF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
P. AlemanGranada CFGranada CF · M
7.7

Match Events

51'
Jorge Pascual
55'
M. Diakite← A. Fernandez
55'
I. Tabatadze← J. Ontiveros
67'
S. Rodelas← A. Sola
70'
J. Moreno← I. Carcelen
71'
Y. Diarra← J. de la Rosa
72'
Iker Recio
75'
Youssouf Diarra
80'
P. Saenz← P. Aleman
80'
L. Gagnidze← J. Pascual
82'
R. Marti← D. Camara

Possession

58%Granada

Shots

18Granada

Pass accuracy

52%Granada

Statistics

GranadaCadiz
Overview
58%Possession42%
18Total Shots11
8Corners4
7Fouls17
Shots
18Total Shots11
1On Target1
12Off Target5
5Blocked5
13Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
378Total Passes278
334Accurate Passes229
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Cadiz

Granada CF and Cadiz drew 0-0 in Segunda División on October 25, 2025.

Granada CF controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.