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Granada CF vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cadiz
Cadiz
11/23/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Granada CF54%
×Draw26%
Cadiz20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.52
Cadiz
0.81

Granada CF creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.47
Cadiz
0.85

allows per match

Granada CF
0.78
Cadiz
1.58

finishing

Granada CF+0.33scores more
Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
80%
Granada CF or Cadiz
74%
Draw or Cadiz
46%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
28%
Cadiz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
78%
Granada CF 2+ goals
45%
Granada CF 3+ goals
20%
Cadiz 1+ goals
56%
Cadiz 2+ goals
19%
Cadiz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
73%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.78 · 5 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.47 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Granada CF defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Granada CF scores more
54%
level
26%
Cadiz scores more
20%

Granada CF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Ricard SánchezGranada CFGranada CF · D
7.7

Match Events

45+4'
Miguel Rubio
45+3'
Reinier
45+3'
Javier Ontiveros
64'
G. Tsitaishvili← Siren Diao
64'
O. Oppong← Pablo Insua
64'
M. Uzuni← Reinier
67'
Fede San Emeterio
71'
Iván Alejo← Javi Ontiveros
76'
Miguel Ángel Brau
77'
M. Hongla← Gonzalo Villar
78'
Chris Ramos← B. Ocampo
78'
Óscar Melendo← Roger
83'
Rubén Sobrino← Carlos Fernández
83'
Álex Fernández← Fede San Emeterio
85'
Pablo Sáenz← Sergio Rodelas
90+4'
Martin Hongla
90'
Fali

Possession

56%Granada

Shots

22Granada

Pass accuracy

53%Granada

Statistics

GranadaCadiz
Overview
56%Possession44%
22Total Shots5
5Corners4
16Fouls14
Shots
22Total Shots5
3On Target3
14Off Target1
5Blocked1
15Inside Box3
7Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
370Total Passes315
296Accurate Passes220
80%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls14
4Yellow Cards3
0Offsides3

Segunda División: Granada CF 0–0 Cadiz

Granada CF and Cadiz drew 0-0 in Segunda División on November 23, 2024.

Granada CF controlled possession (56%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.