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Cadiz vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Cadiz
Cadiz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Granada CF
Granada CF
A. Pascual 61'
R. Alcaraz 64' (pen)
M. Climent 11' (OG)
1/24/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23JP Financial Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Cadiz41%
×Draw28%
Granada CF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.26
Granada CF
1.04

Cadiz creates 21% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 84 away

creates per match

Cadiz
1.28
Granada CF
1.08

allows per match

Cadiz
1.00
Granada CF
1.24

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
69%
Cadiz or Granada CF
72%
Draw or Granada CF
59%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
18%
Granada CF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
72%
Cadiz 2+ goals
36%
Cadiz 3+ goals
13%
Granada CF 1+ goals
65%
Granada CF 2+ goals
28%
Granada CF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
58%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.28 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cadiz scores more
41%
level
28%
Granada CF scores more
31%

Cadiz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. SolaGranada CFGranada CF · F
8.3

Match Events

11'
M. ClimentOwn goal
45+3'
Antonio Cordero
59'
Jorge Moreno
59'
J. Pascual← G. Petit
61'
A. Pascual↳ M. Climent
64'
R. AlcarazPenalty
69'
J. de la Rosa← A. Cordero
69'
B. Ocampo← J. Ontiveros
74'
Juanjo← O. Naasei
75'
P. Saenz← J. M. Arnaiz
75'
S. Rodelas← A. Sola
80'
R. Marti← A. Pascual
80'
A. Fernandez← S. Ortuno
86'
M. Trigueros← P. Aleman
90+1'
Brian Ocampo

Possession

61%Cadiz

Shots

17Cadiz

Pass accuracy

52%Cadiz

Statistics

CadizGranada
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots13
8Corners2
18Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots13
5On Target2
10Off Target6
2Blocked5
9Inside Box11
8Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
467Total Passes311
399Accurate Passes247
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Granada CF

Granada CF beat Cadiz 2-1 in Segunda División on January 24, 2026.

Goals: M. Climent (11' o.g.), A. Pascual (61'), R. Alcaraz (64' pen).

Cadiz controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at JP Financial Estadio in Cadiz.