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Cadiz vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Cadiz
Cadiz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Granada CF
Granada CF
Chris Ramos 28'
3/16/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Cadiz41%
×Draw28%
Granada CF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.26
Granada CF
1.04

Cadiz creates 21% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 84 away

creates per match

Cadiz
1.28
Granada CF
1.08

allows per match

Cadiz
1.00
Granada CF
1.24

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
69%
Cadiz or Granada CF
72%
Draw or Granada CF
59%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
18%
Granada CF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
72%
Cadiz 2+ goals
36%
Cadiz 3+ goals
13%
Granada CF 1+ goals
65%
Granada CF 2+ goals
28%
Granada CF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
58%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.28 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cadiz scores more
41%
level
28%
Granada CF scores more
31%

Cadiz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
Chris RamosCadizCadiz · F
8.0

Match Events

28'
Chris Ramos
32'
Moussa Diakité
46'
Fede San Emeterio← M. Diakité
66'
José Matos← Óscar Melendo
69'
Manu Trigueros← Gonzalo Villar
69'
Reinier← A. Rebbach
77'
Fede San Emeterio
78'
S. Weissman← Stoichkov
78'
Sergio Rodelas← Carlos Neva
80'
Álex Fernández← Chris Ramos
80'
Carlos Fernández← Javi Ontiveros
86'
Borja Bastón← G. Tsitaishvili
89'
G. Escalante← Rubén Alcaraz

Possession

47%Cadiz

Shots

15Cadiz

Pass accuracy

51%Cadiz

Statistics

CadizGranada
Overview
47%Possession53%
15Total Shots7
6Corners6
7Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots7
4On Target0
7Off Target4
4Blocked3
8Inside Box3
7Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
376Total Passes416
301Accurate Passes325
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Segunda División: Cadiz 1–0 Granada CF

Cadiz beat Granada CF 1-0 in Segunda División on March 16, 2025.

Goals: Chris Ramos (28').

Granada CF controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cádiz.